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Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
It is very difficult to calculate the
exact odds of hitting a drawing hand
when you're sitting at the poker
table. Unless you're a genius with a
gift for mathematics like Chris
Ferguson, you will not be able to do
it. That leaves two options for the
rest of us: The first option is to sit
at home with a calculator, figure out
the odds for every possible
combination of draws, and then
memorize them. That way, no matter
what situation comes up, you always
know the odds. But for those of us
without a perfect memory, there's an
easier way. Here is a simple trick for
estimating those odds.
The first thing you need to do is to
figure out how many "outs"
you have. An "out" is any
card that gives you a made hand. To do
this, simply count the number of cards
available that give the hand you are
drawing to. For example: suppose you
hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c
4c. You have a flush draw. There are
thirteen clubs in the deck and you are
looking at four of them -- the two in
your hand, and the two on the board.
That leaves nine clubs left in the
deck, and two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the
approximate percentage chance of
hitting the flush is to multiply your
outs times the number of chances to
hit it. In this case that would be
nine outs multiplied by two chances,
or eighteen. Then take that number,
multiply times two, and add a
percentage sign. The approximate
percentage of the time you will make
the flush is 36%. (The exact
percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say
that on that same flop you hold the Jd
Th. In this case you would have an
open ended straight draw with eight
outs to hit the straight (four kings
and four eights). Eight outs with two
cards to come gives you sixteen outs.
Multiply times two and you will hit
the straight approximately 32% (31.46%
exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is
that the percentage stated is merely
the percentage of the time that you
will hit the hand you are drawing to,
NOT the percentage of time that you
will win the pot. You may hit your
hand and still lose. In the first
example, the Qc will pair the board
and may give somearticle a full house.
In the second example both the Kc and
the 8c will put a possible flush on
the board, giving you the straight,
but not necessarily the winning hand.
Still, knowing the approximate
likelihood of making your hand is a
good beginning step on the road to
better poker.
Clonie Gowen
Play Online Poker
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